Business

Essays on companies, business models, dependencies, and hidden margins.

The Global Economy Still Grows, but With Less InnocenceA cold reading of the global environment of fragile growth: AI, tariffs, and geopolitics pull in opposite directions.
Childhood Became the Regulatory Frontier of Social TechnologyA cold reading of the debate over minimum age for social networks and AI: Social technology would face political limits.
The American Election Will Also Be a Test of Synthetic MediaA cold reading of the 2024 American election cycle: Public trust became vulnerable infrastructure.
2022 Will Be the Year Cheap Money EndsA cold reading of rising inflation and preparation for higher rates: Inflation would force the return of the cost of capital.
Clubhouse Is a Symptom of Social FatigueA cold reading of the explosion of Clubhouse: Formats explode when they answer a temporary tension.
The Second Wave Will Charge the Price of Decision FatigueA cold reading of the return of restrictions and uncertainty: A prolonged crisis destroys management consistency.
The Greatest Crisis in a Century Separates Efficiency From ResilienceA cold reading of the global economic crisis caused by COVID-19: Operational continuity became competitive advantage.
E-Commerce Advanced Ten Years Because the Physical World ClosedA cold reading of the acceleration of e-commerce: Forced behavior becomes habit.
The Office Died as a Moral ObligationA cold reading of lockdowns and remote work: Remote work stopped being a benefit and became infrastructure.
The Shock Will Not Be Only Health. It Will Be CoordinationA cold reading of the initial expansion of COVID-19: Companies would break from inability to decide quickly.
A Distant Virus Is a Global Supply-Chain TestA cold reading of the first signals of COVID-19: Biological risk would reveal economic fragility.
The Next Crisis Will Come From Something Outside the SpreadsheetA cold reading of ignored signals before 2020: Complex systems break through neglected channels.
The Office Is About to Be Re-EvaluatedA cold reading of the maturity of remote tools: Digital work would weaken mandatory physical presence.
Spotify Buys Podcasts Because Media Will Be a Habit SubscriptionA cold reading of Spotify's acquisition of podcast companies: Recurring attention would matter more than occasional audience.
China's Slowdown Warns That the World Has No Spare EngineA cold reading of China's slowdown: Dependence on China was underestimated.
2019 Will Be the Year Growth Without Unit Economics Gets InterrogatedA cold reading of the fatigue around subsidized growth models: Capital would begin asking for proof.
Amazon Reaches One Trillion Because It Became Consumption InfrastructureA cold reading of Amazon reaching US$1 trillion: Dominant companies stop looking like companies.
The U.S. Tax Reform Is Stimulus and Fiscal CompetitionA cold reading of the United States tax reform: Countries would compete for corporate capital.
Amazon Buys Whole Foods Because Logistics Wants to Invade FoodA cold reading of Amazon's acquisition of Whole Foods: Physical retail would become an extension of software.
2017 Will Be the Year Every Business Pretends to Be TechnologyA cold reading of the valuation premium for technology companies: Cosmetic software is not architecture.
The American Election Became an A-B Test of ResentmentA cold reading of the 2016 American presidential campaign: Data and narrative would replace the traditional campaign.
Regulatory Arbitrage Is Rented TimeA cold reading of the tension between platforms and regulators: A model that works only while nobody looks is temporary.
Panama Papers Teach That Opacity Is Also a ProductA cold reading of the Panama Papers leak: Financial systems sell invisibility.
2016 Will Be the Year of Revolt Against ConsensusA cold reading of the erosion of elites and institutions: Political resentment was underestimated by the models.
Shopify: In the E-Commerce Gold Rush, Sell the Store to the ProspectorShopify goes public looking like another e-commerce company, but it may be the shared infrastructure behind a thousand attempts to sell online.
Unicorns Are Less Rare When Money Is AbundantA cold reading of the boom in technology unicorns: High valuation could reflect liquidity, not robustness.
Mobile Will Capture the Customer in the IntervalA cold reading of the consolidation of mobile micro-moments: Purchase decisions would migrate into routine.
Apple: The Company That Sells Habit Charges Rent on IdentityThe split gets attention, but the thesis is the ecosystem: hardware acquires the customer, services monetize permanence.
Alibaba Prepares the IPO of China's Commerce MachineA cold reading of Alibaba's IPO preparation: Marketplaces could become national infrastructure.
2014 Will Be the Year of Commercial DataA cold reading of the advance of CRMs and sales automation: Sales would leave folklore and enter instrumentation.
Snowden Shows That Data Is State and Corporate PowerA cold reading of Edward Snowden's revelations: Privacy would become an economic and geopolitical issue.
Cyprus Shows That Idle Money Also Has Political RiskA cold reading of the banking crisis in Cyprus: Financial safety depends on jurisdiction.
The Next Advantage Will Be Learning SpeedA cold reading of the maturation of metrics and experimentation: Whoever learns faster corrects earlier.
2013 Will Be the Year of Invisible ScaleA cold reading of the convergence of cloud, APIs, and mobile: Invisible infrastructure would support simple experiences.
Campaigns Became Data OperationsA cold reading of Obama's reelection and the use of campaign data: Narrative and operational machine would begin to merge.
Meta: The Advertising Empire Did Not Die; It Merely Moved Into the PocketFacebook's IPO looks expensive and surrounded by anxiety, but the real question is whether the mobile News Feed can turn identity into advertising inventory.
Amazon Sells Logistical PatienceA cold reading of Amazon's logistics expansion: Convenience would become more valuable than price alone.
2012 Will Be the Year of Explicit Monetary AuthorityA cold reading of the centrality of central banks: Central banks would become part of the economy's operating system.
Fukushima Proves Extreme Risk Does Not Fit in an Average SpreadsheetA cold reading of the Fukushima nuclear disaster: Rare events define complex systems.
2011 Will Be the Year Politics Invades the Balance SheetA cold reading of the transition toward austerity and sovereign crisis: Markets, states, and technology would become more entangled.
QE Is Monetary Morphine. Necessary, but AddictiveA cold reading of post-crisis monetary expansion: Stimulus saved the system and distorted the price of risk.
Social Networks Will Become Reputation InfrastructureA cold reading of the expansion of Facebook and Twitter: Brand would stop being campaign and become public behavior.
The Smartphone Will Be the New Point of SaleA cold reading of the expansion of smartphones in consumption: The pocket would start capturing purchase decisions.
The Next Bubble Will Be Born From the Solution to the Previous CrisisA cold reading of post-crisis low interest-rate policy: The monetary cure would create future addictions.
Efficiency Without Redundancy Is FragilityA cold reading of lean supply chains exposed by the crisis: Too much lean breaks when the shock arrives.
A Crisis Does Not Destroy Value. It Reveals the Value That Never ExistedA cold reading of the 2008 destruction of prices: Valuation without real cash flow was theater.
The American Consumer Became Global InfrastructureA cold reading of the slowdown of the American consumer: U.S. demand was supporting entire global supply chains.
When Everyone Buys Growth, Risk Becomes InvisibleA cold reading of the pre-crisis euphoria in assets and companies: Rising markets were absolving bad decisions.
Brazil Discovered Credit; It Has Not Yet Discovered the CycleWhen a poor country mistakes credit for wealth, it does not become rich. It merely borrows its own hangover.
Netflix: The Best Logistics Is the One That Eliminates the Object Being MovedStreaming looks like a small convenience, inferior to DVD, but it may be the emergency exit from the red-envelope business itself.
Amazon: Retail Was the Bait; Infrastructure Was the TrapAmazon still looks like profitless retail, but AWS may be externalizing the infrastructure the store had to build for itself.

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