finance

How do you take part in the circulation of capital without starting out owning the capital?

I still do not know how to do it. But I have started looking for where money changes hands.

November 2, 2009

Lazy intermediation is temporary parasitism. Good intermediation is infrastructure.

infrastructure
XThreadsin

How do you take part in the circulation of capital without starting out owning the capital?

I still do not know how to do it. But I have started looking for where money changes hands.

A little over a year ago I wrote that whoever knows how to sell rarely ends up completely without money. I still believe that, perhaps more than before. But I now see that the conclusion contained a question I had not yet formulated properly.

If selling matters so much, what exactly is worth selling?

It is a more serious question than it looks.

One can learn to sell very well and spend an entire life selling bad things, with small margins, hard to produce, or requiring too much effort for each real received. The ability to sell is portable, but the object of the sale completely changes the quality of the business.

Knowing how to sell is not enough.

One has to think about what crosses the table.

Over this past year I have begun to look at money differently. Not merely as the result of work or as something that accumulates after a sale. I am beginning to see it as a product.

Product may be a strange word to use.

Money does not look like a product because it is what we normally receive in exchange for the product. It shows up at the end of the operation. We sell an apartment, we receive money. We sell a machine, we receive money. We render a service, we receive money.

We are used to thinking the merchandise is on one side and the money on the other.

But there is an entire market in which money is on both sides.

One person hands over money today and receives money tomorrow.

The difference between the two amounts is the price.

Put that way, it seems almost absurd for being so simple.

It was a client who put that idea in my head.

I work today as commercial manager at a real estate developer and construction company. My job is not merely showing properties or accompanying buyers. I have to think about how the properties will be sold, to whom, under what terms, with which arguments, and through which channels. It is an interesting position because it forces me to observe both the product and the person putting money into it.

Among the buyers there are those looking for a place to live and those looking for something completely different.

The first buys a property.

The second buys an expectation.

He looks at the apartment and sees entry price, appreciation, rent, liquidity, tenor, and exit price. He may like the architecture, but that is not why he puts up the money. The architecture merely helps or hinders an equation.

For the investor, concrete is a form of money.

He hands over money now expecting to receive more money later.

Perhaps because I work surrounded by that kind of operation, I have begun to suspect that many things we call products are merely vehicles through which money passes.

One of the investors I met through the developer is a businessman in Caxias do Sul. He owns a truck parts industry. He is exactly the kind of person I like to hear from when the subject is money, because he did not learn the word "capital" at a seminar and decide to repeat it until it sounded important. He knows factories, machines, employees, raw material, inventory, suppliers, clients, taxes, and payment terms.

That is, he knows the things that happen before elegant profit shows up in a presentation.

It was from him that I heard a sentence I could not forget:

"Nothing makes more money than selling money."

I do not know whether that was exactly how he said it or whether my memory has already started improving the sentence. It matters little. The meaning stayed.

At the time I took it as provocation.

Today I think it was a description.

An industry has to produce something in order to sell it. Before receiving a single real from the client, someone bought steel, paid for energy, financed inventory, paid wages, ran machines, transported parts, and waited.

That waiting costs money.

Perhaps the most invisible part of a factory is not the machines nobody sees inside. It is the capital that must stay trapped at every stage before the sale finally comes back as cash.

When you look only at the final product, it looks like the industry sells parts.

When you look at the flow, you see something else.

Someone is financing the whole time.

The supplier finances when he grants terms.

The industry finances when it produces before being paid.

The bank finances when it advances funds.

The client can finance when he pays early.

The owner finances when he puts up his own capital.

At some point, someone has to accept being paid later so that someone else can act now.

It is in that interval that money seems to acquire a price of its own.

That made the businessman's sentence less funny.

He knew the cost of selling parts. Perhaps that is why he could recognize the economic privilege of selling the thing that allows all the parts to be produced.

If I manufacture a part, I have to manufacture it again after selling it.

If I lend R$ 100,000, I expect to receive the R$ 100,000 back and something more.

It is not literally the same product returning like a machine coming back to the factory. There is risk, inflation, opportunity cost, default, and an enormous number of things I still know only superficially.

But the basic structure is fascinating.

I hand over money.

Time passes.

I receive money.

If everything works, I receive more than I handed over.

Then I can do it again.

It is hard to imagine merchandise closer to perfect abstraction.

Money does not need a better color than the competitor's.

It does not occupy a warehouse.

It does not rot.

It does not go out of fashion because the collection changed.

It does not have to convince anyone it is useful.

There may be someone who does not want a car. Another does not want an apartment. Another does not want a watch. Another does not want to travel.

But refusing money is rare.

A person may not want money on the terms offered. He may find the price high. He may not want debt. He may not want to pledge his assets.

But the usefulness of the product does not have to be explained.

That may be a brutal advantage.

Most commercial work begins by trying to demonstrate why someone should want what you have.

Whoever sells money begins one step ahead.

The question is not "do you want money?"

The question is "at what price is it worth bringing forward what you do not yet have?"

That is a completely different conversation.

And perhaps that is why the financial system is so powerful.

Not because bankers are intellectually superior to other people. There is an unpleasant tendency to confuse wealth with intelligence. A person who makes money inside a given structure starts believing the result proves universal ability.

It is the kind of vanity that works until the first change of regime.

The advantage may lie less in the man and more in the position he occupies.

Whoever stands between available capital and the need for capital occupies an extraordinary position.

It is a kind of bridge across which almost every other business passes.

An industry needs money.

A developer needs money.

A merchant needs money.

A family buys a house with money.

A person opens a business with money.

A company crosses bad months with money.

Another seizes an acquisition with money.

Money is not a sector of the economy.

It is what crosses every sector.

Perhaps selling money means charging a toll on the road everyone has to use.

Of course that does not mean banks print profit without risk. One need only look at the past year to abandon that fantasy.

The financial crisis showed exactly the opposite.

Institutions that looked indestructible disappeared or had to be rescued. Products considered safe revealed risks almost nobody had properly understood, or wanted to understand while making money. Leverage turned small mistakes into disasters. Sophisticated models served, in many cases, to give mathematical precision to absurd premises.

Perhaps one of the most dangerous things in finance is using intelligence to eliminate the feeling of ignorance without eliminating the ignorance.

A spreadsheet with many decimal places does not know the future.

It merely makes the assumption look respectable.

A year ago the world watched part of the financial system collapse. Now some of those same institutions are announcing enormous profits again.

A few weeks ago Goldman Sachs released its quarterly result. More than twelve billion dollars in net revenue in three months. More than three billion in profit.

I do not know exactly how to decompose each line of that result and it would be ridiculous to pretend otherwise. But the scale draws attention.

We are still surrounded by the effects of the crisis.

Companies cut jobs.

Families lost wealth.

The real economy still carries scars.

And an institution whose activity is largely tied to markets, capital, trading, advisory, and intermediation manages to produce billions.

The easy reaction would be moral.

"That is unfair."

Perhaps it is.

But that answer teaches nothing.

A more useful reaction is to ask:

what kind of economic position makes that result possible?

I do not want to admire Goldman Sachs.

I want to understand Goldman Sachs.

They are completely different things.

Admiration is dangerous because it turns observation into submission. When someone admires an institution too much he starts copying its symbols instead of studying its mechanisms. He buys the suit, learns the vocabulary, dreams about the building, and perhaps never notices where the money comes from.

I prefer to follow the flow.

Where does it come in?

Why does it come in?

Who needs whom?

Who has information?

Who bears risk?

Who charges for the risk?

Who merely charges for the connection?

Who keeps the principal?

Who earns the fee?

Who can repeat the operation using other people's capital?

Those questions seem more interesting to me than childish reverence for "the financial market."

In fact, the more I think about it, the more I realize that "selling money" may be an incomplete expression.

There are several ways to make money around money without necessarily owning the money.

That is even more interesting.

A real estate broker can sell a house that does not belong to him.

He gets paid because he brought buyer and seller together.

An insurance broker does not have all the money needed to cover each risk he presents.

He gets paid for distribution.

Perhaps in the credit market there are also people whose main function is to find whoever needs capital and place him in front of whoever can supply it.

If so, the business becomes very different from what I first imagined.

Perhaps it is not necessary to accumulate a fortune first in order to lend later.

Perhaps it is possible to learn the business before owning the capital.

That interests me.

The main limitation of almost every young person is obvious: he has no money.

There is a kind of circular joke in financial advice. To make money investing, you first need money to invest. To receive income from assets, you first need assets.

True, but not very useful.

The question that interests me comes earlier:

how does someone without capital learn to take part in the circulation of capital?

The answer may lie in selling.

Again.

If I cannot own the product, I can learn to distribute it.

If I cannot own the money, perhaps I can find who has it and who needs it.

Perhaps I can learn to recognize a good operation.

Perhaps I can be paid for bringing them together.

It is only an intuition at this point.

I do not know this market well enough to say how feasible it is. But the structure makes sense because I already observe it in real estate.

A broker can make a lot of money without owning a single apartment.

What he owns is access.

He knows the inventory.

He knows buyers.

He understands terms.

He knows which owners are willing to negotiate.

He can recognize who is actually buying and who is merely browsing.

If he does it well, he earns on assets he did not have to buy.

There is leverage in that.

Not financial leverage in the classic sense, but leverage of position.

The asset belongs to another.

The client belongs to himself.

The transaction depends on the ability to put both at the same table.

The commission pays for the bridge.

If I apply that principle to money, a disturbing idea appears.

Perhaps it is possible to sell money that belongs to someone else.

And be paid for it.

That sentence sounds almost indecent.

Perhaps that is why it is interesting.

It does not mean appropriating someone else's capital. It means being the person who finds an acceptable destination for it.

Whoever has a lot of money also has a problem.

He has to put it somewhere.

Idle money loses value. Badly allocated money can disappear. The man who has capital is not free of need. He has a different need.

On one side someone says:

"I need money."

On the other:

"I need to find somewhere to put my money without doing something stupid."

The existence of those two people does not guarantee the operation happens.

They have to meet.

Then they have to trust each other.

Then they have to agree on price.

Then they have to agree on tenor.

Then they have to agree on risk.

Then someone has to document everything in a way that reduces the possibility of future creative interpretations.

There is an entire business inside the space between the two.

Perhaps that space is more valuable than I imagined.

I am also beginning to understand that money is not really a uniform merchandise, though it looks like one.

A hundred thousand reais are a hundred thousand reais.

But a hundred thousand for thirty days is not the same as a hundred thousand for five years.

A hundred thousand without collateral is not the same as a hundred thousand secured by a good property.

A hundred thousand to a company with predictable cash flow is not the same as a hundred thousand to someone whose payment depends on hope.

A hundred thousand delivered today is not the same as a hundred thousand available after the opportunity has passed.

Money is fungible.

The terms are not.

Perhaps the financier makes money precisely because he can see the terms when others see only the quantity.

The ordinary person asks how much.

The financier has to ask for how long and with what chance of return.

That introduces risk.

And risk may be the part that keeps the sentence "nothing makes more money than selling money" from becoming bar-counter advice.

If it were that easy, everyone would lend and get rich.

It does not work that way because the merchandise may not come back.

That is an important detail.

When I sell a part, I deliver and I receive.

The operation is over.

When I hand over money today expecting money in the future, part of the sale stays open.

The buyer still owes the merchandise.

So selling money requires something that selling other products may not require with the same intensity: knowing how to choose the buyer.

The sale can be closed and still be a terrible sale.

That is an interesting inversion of what I have learned so far.

In ordinary commerce, selling more generally seems better.

In credit, selling more may be exactly the way to fail faster if the selection is bad.

There is asymmetry.

The additional revenue from a good operation is limited to what was contracted.

The loss from a bad one can include a large part of the principal.

It is like earning coins while risking the loss of banknotes.

That mechanism demands humility.

Or it should.

Perhaps one of the reasons financial crises exist is precisely that long periods without accidents turn prudence into the appearance of stupidity.

Imagine two people.

The first takes risks and earns a lot over five years.

The second turns deals down, earns less, and looks far too conservative.

For five years, the first looks smarter.

In the sixth, he may disappear.

The second is still there.

Which of the two was better?

It depends on when you measure.

That problem fascinates me.

The short-term result can reward exactly the behavior that will produce ruin in the long run.

So money earned does not necessarily prove competence.

Sometimes it merely proves the risk has not shown up yet.

That makes the financial market especially dangerous for the ego.

A person can make millions taking risks he does not understand and conclude that he has talent. Chance itself pays the bill for his arrogance for a while.

Then it charges interest.

Perhaps that is why I do not want merely to learn to sell money.

I want to learn to understand when it should be sold.

That difference probably separates the salesman from the financier.

The salesman is trained to look for yes.

The financier may have to make a fortune saying no.

Not in every situation.

Not out of fear.

But because he knows preserving capital is the condition for continuing to play.

An industrial company can sell a batch at a bad margin and lose money on that operation.

Whoever sells money to the wrong debtor can lose his very ability to keep selling.

The inventory disappears.

Perhaps the first rule for whoever sells money is not to lose the money.

It sounds banal.

But many genuinely important rules sound banal precisely because people prefer sophisticated explanations for simple mistakes.

Not putting money where it will not come back is a simple rule.

Knowing where it will not come back is the problem.

From here on, information enters.

Whoever knows the borrower better has an advantage.

It is something I can already observe in real estate.

A document says one thing.

The person's behavior sometimes says another.

There are buyers who look rich and vanish when it is time to pay.

Others display nothing and settle an operation in a few minutes.

The appearance of wealth and the real capacity to pay are different things.

Credit probably amplifies that difference.

A balance sheet can say a company has assets.

But are those assets liquid?

A company can report revenue.

But when does it get paid?

It can have assets.

Are they unencumbered?

It can have profit.

Is there cash?

It can have a famous businessman.

Does he honor commitments?

It can have collateral.

What is it worth in a forced sale?

The questions get more interesting as the surface loses importance.

It is possible that I am taking too much interest in a subject I still know little about.

But perhaps that is how serious interests begin.

Not as certainty.

As an irritation that will not go away.

The more I try to set the businessman's sentence aside, the more examples I find that bring me back to it.

I look at a developer.

There is land.

Construction.

Sales.

Financing.

A payment stream.

Advances.

Credit for the buyer.

Own capital.

Third-party capital.

The property looks like the center because it is what we can touch.

But the whole development is also a choreography of money over time.

If capital comes in late, the works stop.

If the client pays late, cash gets tight.

If the financing costs too much, the margin changes.

If the tenor is wrong, a profitable project can become a problem.

Perhaps a developer is as much a financial business as a real estate one.

Construction produces the asset.

Capital determines whether there will be enough time to produce it.

And that probably holds for many companies.

We are used to classifying businesses by their physical object: auto parts industry, civil construction, retail.

Perhaps there is a second way to classify them.

By the way they consume and produce money.

There are businesses that get paid before they pay.

Others pay long before they get paid.

Some need enormous inventories.

Others almost none.

Some generate cash quickly.

Others tie up capital for years.

That second anatomy may reveal vulnerabilities the product hides.

A company can be great at manufacturing and terrible at financing its own cycle.

It can sell a great deal and die.

It is a strange idea.

Growth, normally presented as an indisputable objective, can increase the need for capital and hasten death if the money does not keep up.

So the financier is not necessarily lending to a failing company.

He may be financing success that came too fast.

That changes the vulgar morality of debt.

Debt is not automatically weakness.

And equity is not automatically virtue.

Everything depends on what the money does after it comes in.

Cheap debt used to produce high returns can increase wealth.

Your own money buried in a bad business is still money lost, merely without an invoice.

There is a kind of childish moralizing of finance.

Debt is bad.

Saving is good.

Banks are greedy.

Businessmen are productive.

Reality almost never respects such comfortable categories.

A bank can destroy value.

A debt can save a company.

A businessman can be irresponsible.

An intermediary can create an operation that would not exist without him.

I prefer mechanisms to characters.

Characters require heroes and villains.

Mechanisms require incentives.

Perhaps that is where I am beginning to change how I see money.

I do not want to ask only who won.

I want to ask why he had an incentive to act that way.

Is the banker paid for the operation?

Then he will tend to want the operation.

Does the analyst lose anything if he is wrong?

If he does not, perhaps his confidence is worth less.

Does the businessman put up his own capital?

If he does not, he may treat other people's money with a courage he would never have with his own.

Is the intermediary paid only if he closes?

Then he may have an incentive to minimize problems.

None of that means anyone will necessarily act badly.

It merely means incentives matter more than speeches about character.

A bad structure can turn reasonable people into bad decision-makers.

A good structure makes it harder for one person's stupidity to destroy everyone else.

Perhaps the financial market is, at bottom, a profession of designing incentives around money.

If so, I want to understand that.

I want to understand why someone accepts a given piece of collateral.

Why a rate goes up.

Why a given company gets credit and another does not.

Why some businesses find capital quickly.

Why others look good and nobody wants to finance them.

Why people with money accept a certain risk.

Why certain operations let an intermediary be very well paid using almost no capital of his own.

That last question will not leave me alone.

Because there is a distinction between wealth produced by capital and wealth produced by the ability to move capital.

The first requires that you already have money.

The second may come first.

If I can place someone's R$ 1 million into a suitable operation and receive 1% for having built the bridge, that is R$ 10,000 on capital I did not have to accumulate.

If I can do that with R$ 10 million, the same percentage becomes R$ 100,000.

I am not saying it is easy.

It is probably exactly the opposite.

The larger the money, the greater the demand for trust, responsibility, information, and reputation.

But the mathematics of the mechanism is powerful.

The percentage does not have to be enormous when the volume is large.

Perhaps one of the biggest differences between people who think small and people who think big lies in the unit of measurement.

The small trader tries to raise a margin from a hundred reais to a hundred and twenty.

The financier may try to put a hundred million in motion and take a fraction.

The percentage looks humble.

The result does not.

That is why I have begun to look less at isolated margins and more at flow.

How much money passes through a given place?

Who controls the passage?

How many times does it pass?

How long does it stay?

Who can charge without having to own everything?

Those questions make me see companies differently.

Perhaps wealth is not merely owning assets.

It can be owning a position over flows.

A person who controls the only bridge does not have to own the farms on either side.

It is enough that the goods must pass through.

Of course bridges attract competition.

If the toll becomes absurd, someone tries to build another.

No advantage lasts forever simply because it was profitable yesterday.

That is another common mistake.

People observe a highly profitable business and conclude it will stay profitable indefinitely.

Profit is an invitation.

Where there is excessive margin, competitors appear, along with regulators, technology, and clients trying to bypass the intermediary.

Perhaps the only lasting defense is to keep being useful enough to justify staying in the path.

That holds for a salesman.

It holds for a bank.

It holds for a broker.

It holds for any intermediary.

If you merely occupy the middle and charge, someone will eventually ask why he cannot remove you.

If your presence reduces risk, saves time, increases trust, or produces access the parties could not achieve alone, the answer is better.

I want to remember that if I ever work in that kind of business.

Lazy intermediation is temporary parasitism.

Good intermediation is infrastructure.

The difference lies in knowing whether the operation is better because you exist.

That may be a good moral and economic rule at the same time.

I do not want to earn because a person does not know something he could find out in five minutes.

I want, if possible, to earn because I can do something that would be difficult, slow, or improbable without me.

That creates a reason to keep being paid.

The objective should not be to hide information in order to preserve the commission.

It should be to accumulate enough knowledge, relationships, and judgment that the commission keeps making sense even when everyone knows exactly how much you earn.

That looks like a more resistant business.

It also requires reputation.

The more money there is in an operation, the more expensive distrust becomes.

A stranger can sell a shirt.

It is far harder to convince someone to let you take part in a decision worth millions.

That means that, in this market, reputation may work as capital before capital.

You have to get someone to trust you in order to then move what belongs to him.

There is no obvious shortcut.

It is probably built like every serious asset: slowly.

One good operation.

Then another.

A word kept.

Information preserved.

An interest declined when it makes no sense.

Perhaps behavior in small deals determines whether someone will ever be allowed into the large ones.

That matters to me because I have no interest in being known by everyone.

I have a growing interest in being trustworthy to a few.

They are different ambitions.

The first seeks an audience.

The second seeks consequence.

Big money probably prefers the second.

I do not say that because I know this world deeply. I am still at the door, looking in.

But I already notice that people who actually move capital often do not have the childish need to announce every move.

The man who has to convince everyone he is rich may be trying to turn appearance into an asset.

Whoever actually owns assets has different concerns.

Protection.

Liquidity.

Return.

Risk.

Tax.

Succession.

Perhaps money, as it grows, makes less noise because the problem shifts from earning to not losing.

I am still very far from that phase.

My problem now is still building.

Learning.

Increasing capacity.

But it may be useful to learn early that the rules change when the capital changes size.

The ability that builds wealth may not be the one that preserves it.

An aggressive salesman can build a fortune and then destroy it using the same aggression where prudence should have been.

That change of phase seems important to me.

It is possible to be very good at attacking and utterly incompetent at defending.

The market tends to celebrate the first and only notices the absence of the second after the ruin.

The current crisis is full of examples of that.

Institutions that looked like geniuses because they grew quickly revealed that part of the growth was merely accumulated risk without a name.

When the environment changed, the talent disappeared along with the liquidity.

That should produce some humility.

I do not know how long it will last.

Probably not long.

Financial memory seems to shorten exactly when the profits come back.

But I want to try to keep the lesson.

Earning is not enough.

One has to understand how one can lose.

Perhaps that is the point where my obsession with selling meets the financial market.

Selling teaches you to obtain the yes.

Finance forces you to think about what happens after the yes.

It is a strange combination.

Persuasion without prudence can produce disaster.

Prudence without commercial ability can produce irrelevance.

Perhaps the skill is being able to build an operation the parties want to do and that still looks sensible after the excitement of closing wears off.

I do not know whether a profession exactly like that exists.

Perhaps several.

Perhaps I am trying to invent a position that already exists under another name.

That matters little now.

What matters is that the direction is becoming clearer.

I want to be near where money changes hands.

Not necessarily behind a bank counter.

Not necessarily using a bank's money.

I want to understand the passage.

Who has it.

Who needs it.

Why.

How much.

When.

At what price.

With what protection.

Who knows each side.

Who can build the bridge.

I may spend years before I truly understand that mechanism.

That is fine.

A good question is worth a great deal when you do not yet have the answer.

Sometimes it is worth more than an answer received too early, because premature answers close investigations that should still be open.

I am nineteen.

It would be ridiculous to conclude I have discovered the best business in the world because I heard a clever sentence from a client.

I have not.

But some sentences work like a small shard of glass in your shoe. You keep walking, but you cannot forget it is there.

"Nothing makes more money than selling money."

Perhaps it is wrong.

Perhaps there are better businesses.

Perhaps risk makes the sentence look far more attractive than it is.

Perhaps I will discover that the real advantage is not even in selling money, but in some adjacent function I cannot yet see.

All of that is possible.

But I now know enough to formulate the question I want to pursue.

How do you take part in the circulation of capital without starting out owning the capital?

If I figure that out, perhaps I will find a way to combine what I began to learn about selling with what now fascinates me about money.

One person needs capital.

Another has capital.

Between the two there is distance.

Information.

Risk.

Time.

Distrust.

Price.

Documents.

Negotiation.

If someone can shorten that distance, perhaps there is a business there.

I do not need to know the name yet.

Names almost always arrive later.

The mechanism appears first.

And it is the mechanism I want to understand.

Last year I wrote that the product changes but the ability to sell remains.

Today I would add something.

Not all products are the same.

Some have to be manufactured again after the sale.

Others come back.

Some are consumed.

Others produce new flows.

Some require that you be the owner.

Others may let you be merely the bridge.

And among all of them, I cannot imagine anything more curious than money.

It is the product everyone recognizes.

It is the product needed to buy all the others.

It is the product whose price varies with time, risk, and trust.

It is the product that can return to whoever handed it over, with a price added.

And it may be the product that most rewards whoever understands not merely how to sell it, but to whom, when, and under what terms.

I still do not know how to do that.

But I have started looking.

Perhaps that is how certain trajectories begin.

Not with a company.

Not with a plan.

Not with a great revelation.

Only with a question that refuses to go away.

Mine, at this moment, is simple:

if nothing makes more money than selling money, how exactly do you sell money?

Leo Bentier

XThreadsin