finance

The private equity boom isn't about money. It's about governance.

Why mature companies with real assets are leaving public markets — and what that says about how public markets stopped working.

February 22, 2007

Leverage calls efficiency what the cycle will call fragility.

risk
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The private equity boom isn't about money. It's about governance.

Why mature companies with real assets are leaving public markets — and what that says about how public markets stopped working.

People are reading the private equity boom as greed for easy money. That is the lazy reading. What is actually happening is more interesting and more uncomfortable.

Mature companies, with real assets and predictable cash, are lining up to leave the stock exchange. The right question is not 'why so expensive?'. It is 'why do they want out so badly?'.

The public market promised to be the best possible owner: abundant capital, fair price, public discipline. For a certain kind of company, that promise has become a trap.

In a public company the owner is a scattered crowd that changes its mind every quarter. No one is in charge, so the short term takes charge. The CEO manages the narrative, not the business.

In private capital the owner has a name, a phone number and a temper. A hard decision that would take two years of public theater gets made in an afternoon. Concentrated control is, above all, speed.

KKR's acquisition of TXU is the emblem of the month. A vast, capital-intensive, long-horizon business is being pulled private. Precisely the kind of asset public markets handle badly.

Public markets punish those who invest today to harvest in seven years. The price drops when margins shrink, even if margins shrank because of a correct decision. That teaches managers to lie elegantly.

Private equity is not magic. It simply swaps the judge. It pulls the company out of the quarterly courtroom and hands it to an owner who tolerates ugliness along the way as long as the end is bigger.

Here is the mechanism that matters: governance is who decides and under which incentive. When the decider's incentive equals the owner's, decisions improve. When the decider answers to an audience, decisions rot.

But do not confuse the structure with the fuel. The structure is concentrated governance. The fuel is very cheap debt. And the fuel lies.

Today companies are bought with mountains of debt because credit is nearly free and no one is charging a premium for risk. That makes any acquisition look like genius.

Leverage has a treacherous property: it amplifies the right call and the wrong call with equal indifference. While money is cheap, you only see the right call. The wrong one is stored for later.

That is why today's euphoria blends two things that the bill will later force apart: genuinely superior governance, and plain financial engineering riding a low interest rate.

They look identical in the boom and opposite in the turn. One survives expensive credit because the business truly improved. The other implodes, because without cheap debt there was never a business, only a capital structure.

The serious investor should not ask 'how much does this fund return?'. He should ask 'how much of that return is a better owner, and how much is borrowed money pretending to be talent?'.

There is a quiet signal buried in this exodus. If the best assets are leaving the exchange, the public investor is slowly being left with whatever remains.

The public market risks becoming the display case for companies that lacked enough to attract a concentrated owner. Adverse selection does not arrive with a warning. It arrives as prolonged, mediocre returns.

My reading for the cycle: the migration of control to private capital is real and will continue, because it solves a genuine governance problem.

But the bill comes in two acts. First the applause, while the debt is cheap. Then the selection, when credit remembers it has a price.

When credit turns — and it always turns — we will finally see who bought companies and who merely bought leverage with a logo on the front.

Leo Bentier

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