The device is irrelevant. What matters is who decides what runs on it — and charges to let things through.
The iPhone launched yesterday. Everyone is looking at the screen. The structure being built behind it will change who controls what can exist as a digital product.
June 30, 2007
The device is irrelevant. What matters is who decides what runs on it — and charges to let things through.
The iPhone launched yesterday. Everyone is looking at the screen. The structure being built behind it will change who controls what can exist as a digital product.
The iPhone has launched and it is in people's hands. The crowd stares at the screen. I stare at the lock.
The device is dazzling, and the dazzle is the irrelevant part. Beautiful hardware is copied within two years. What is not easily copied is the position it inaugurates.
Notice what Apple did and what it has not yet done. There is no app store. There are no third parties running software on the device. Distribution is closed, locked to a single carrier.
The temptation is to read this as the limitation of an immature product. That is the mistake of the month. It is not a limitation. It is an opening position. It is the starting state of someone who intends, later, to decide who gets in.
Because today's closed gate is the precondition of tomorrow's toll. You do not charge to let people through a place where anyone already passes freely. First you close it. Then you charge to open it.
Write down this sequence, because it will repeat in every platform from here on: first you enchant the user, then you trap the user, and only then you charge whoever wants to reach him.
The device is the asset that sells once. You buy the phone and the transaction is over. Control of distribution is the asset that charges forever. Every developer who wants the user will pay for passage, month after month, year after year.
That is why the absence of an app store today is not a gap. It is a promise. The most valuable business here has not been announced yet, because Apple first needs the user trapped for the passage to be worth anything.
Look at the exclusive carrier. It celebrates having the product of the moment. It did not grasp what it signed. It agreed to be the pipe the bits run through while Apple keeps the relationship, the brand and, soon, the box office of software.
Connectivity becomes a commodity. The carrier sold its one chance to be a platform in exchange for a temporary spike in subscriptions. It traded structural position for short-term shine. The kind of deal that looks clever in the quarter and dumb in the decade.
There is an asymmetry delightful for whoever owns the gate and cruel for everyone else. The developer will take the risk of creating; Apple will take the right to approve and to charge. Risk on one side, veto and rent on the other.
Whoever holds veto power over what exists need not invent anything. He only has to stand between the creator and the customer. The tax is not on the success of a specific app. It is on the entire category of wanting to reach that user.
The software industry has not yet understood what is being built. It is enchanted by the chance to make beautiful things for a beautiful screen. It has not noticed it is being invited inside a tollgate it will never get out of.
Because once the user is trapped and the store exists, not being in it will be commercial suicide. And being in it will cost a fraction of everything you earn. You will be free to choose between not existing and paying tax. That is not a choice. It is capture.
The shine of the screen serves a purpose that is not aesthetic. The more the user loves the device, the more expensive it is to leave it. Enchantment is the cheapest, most durable way to trap someone. No one escapes a cage they mistake for a gift.
The investor pricing this by hardware margin is measuring the shadow. The phone's margin is what you see. The asset is the gate and the toll it makes possible. One shows up on the invoice; the other, in control.
The rule of this month is the same as the announcement, now confirmed in practice: the device is irrelevant. What matters is who decides what runs on it and charges to let it through.
Everything that looks like generosity today — no store, no fee, open web — is merely the period in which it is not yet worth charging. The generosity lasts exactly until the user is trapped enough.
Keep the launch not for what it delivers, but for what it sets up. The product is the charm. The business is the lock. And the lock has not even shown the price of the key.
Look at the lock, not the screen. The lock is where the real money will live.
Leo Bentier