Track Record

The thesis on record before the outcome. The scoreboard, open.

Each row is a letter about a company: the date the thesis was published, the moment the market validated it, and the return for anyone who had bought on the day of the letter and never sold. The letters are linked. Check for yourself.

Hits

NVIDIANVDA · Jul 2007287x+28,627%
The GPU stopped being a toy: it is parallel computing under the wrong name.CUDA → deep learning (2012) → datacenter (2016) → ChatGPT (2023).
NVIDIANVDA · Sep 2007249x+24,844%
The video card is a calculation machine wearing a toy costume.Deep learning (2012), datacenter (2016), ChatGPT (2023).
NetflixNFLX · Jan 2007236x+23,541%
A streaming company using DVDs to finance its own crossing.Streaming overtakes DVD (2010–2013); global dominance (2020).
NVIDIANVDA · Apr 2016226x+22,490%
The P100 is not a chip; it is economic permission to attack problems at scale.AI capex institutionalizes (2017+); explosion in 2023.
AMDAMD · Oct 2014154x+15,298%
It does not need to win; it needs to stop dying.Ryzen/EPYC (2017–2019); passes Intel in market value (2022); AI (2024+).
GoogleGOOGL · Aug 2004149x+14,754%
Search is not a website; it is the internet's first exchange for commercial intent.AdWords exploded (2005–2007); mobile and AI renewed the tax on intent.
AmazonAMZN · Jan 2007127x+12,601%
Retail was the bait; behind it, the operating system of commerce and computing.AWS shows up in earnings (2015); $1 trillion (2018).
ASMLASML · Jan 200777x+7,561%
The physical bottleneck of all computing: wealth born from the chokepoint, not the narrative.EUV monopoly becomes consensus (2017–2020); AI cycle (2023+).
FICOFICO · Sep 200857x+5,618%
Whoever organizes risk becomes invisible infrastructure; everyone will buy decision systems.The compliance and analytics era (2010s).
NVIDIANVDA · Jun 201753x+5,241%
The Transformer creates a future compute debt; the bill arrives as capex.GPT-3 (2020); ChatGPT (2022–2023).
ShopifySHOP · May 201548x+4,713%
In the e-commerce gold rush, sell the store to the prospector.Independent commerce takes off (2017–2020).
AMDAMD · Jun 201741x+4,030%
The monopoly only looks invincible when the competitor forgot how to execute.Server share grows quarter after quarter (2018–2022).
AMDAMD · Jun 201741x+4,030%
EPYC is a rehearsal; the real prize is the entire data center stack.AMD earns the right to be valued in the datacenter again (2018–2022).
SanDiskSNDK · Feb 202533x+3,184%
AI does not live in the brain; it lives in memory. Buy the forgetting.AI-driven memory supercycle (second half of 2025).
EquinixEQIX · Mar 200932x+3,131%
The internet became an industry of physical scale: a warehouse full of machines.Cloud institutionalizes the data center (2012–2015).
NVIDIANVDA · May 202025x+2,372%
The A100 is the dress rehearsal: AI becomes institutional capex.2022–2023.
VertivVRT · Feb 202025x+2,352%
The real bottleneck starts at energy: “by 2023, the question will be where to put the chips”.Exactly in 2023–2024.
ServiceNowNOW · Jun 201223x+2,210%
Broken workflow is the large company's invisible tax; recurring relief beats spectacle.Becomes the corporate workflow standard (2015–2019).
VertivVRT · Nov 202222x+2,088%
Named in the letter as the alarm's physical chain: power and cooling.Repriced through 2023–2024.
PalantirPLTR · Apr 202316x+1,541%
The contest will be putting AI inside the operation; Palantir named before consensus.AIP becomes the symbol of operational AI (2023–2024).
MetaMETA · May 201216x+1,501%
An ad exchange built on identity; if mobile works, the IPO will look cheap.Mobile revenue becomes the majority (2013–2014).
AppleAAPL · Jun 201415x+1,426%
The company that sells habit charges rent on identity.Services become a giant segment (2016–2019).
PalantirPLTR · Sep 202014x+1,348%
The most valuable software is the one the State learns not to switch off.AIP and GAAP profit (2023); S&P 500 (2024).
MicrosoftMSFT · Feb 201413x+1,212%
The most dangerous zombie is the one that learns cloud.Azure consolidates as cloud's #2 (2017–2018).
NVIDIANVDA · Nov 202212x+1,069%
ChatGPT is not the product, it is the alarm: the money is in the chain, not the button.The entire year of 2023.
NVIDIANVDA · Mar 20228.2x+718%
The profit is in AI's underground: physical capital before ubiquitous AI.ChatGPT sounds the alarm nine months later (Nov 2022).
VertivVRT · Dec 20236.7x+571%
Any company near the rack will get bought; Vertiv named among the satellites.Data center capex keeps setting records (2024–2026).
AdobeADBE · May 20134.9x+393%
When software becomes professional identity, rent stops looking optional.Recurring revenue dominates (2015–2017); ~15x at the 2021 peak, partly given back on AI fears.
AristaANET · Nov 20224.8x+383%
Named in the letter as the alarm's physical chain: networking.Repriced through 2023–2024.
BroadcomAVGO · Jun 20242.5x+153%
The AI toll road does not need to look futuristic.Custom chips for hyperscalers become AI's second axis (2024–2025).

Right by not buying

SnowflakeSNOW · Sep 20201.1x+6%
Prepayment for prophecy: better to wait for the prophecy to stumble.Almost six years later, the stock sits roughly at its debut price.
TeslaTSLA · Aug 20202.5x+146%
Right about the future, wrong about the price: only a small convex exposure.Up since the letter, but with a ~75% drawdown along the way (2022).
SupermicroSMCI · Dec 20231x-2%
Whoever enters on flow must exit on flow.Quadrupled in three months, collapsed in the accounting scandal (2024); now back at the letter's price.

Unverifiable

ELOXNov 2022
Small asymmetric trade: the market sometimes mistakes accounting surgery for resurrection.Relisted micro-cap without continuous history; no way to measure with public data.
ATNFFeb 2024
A crushed stock does not need good news; it needs less bad news.Ticker renamed/relisted; no continuous public history.

Too early to judge

InferênciaMar 2025
The next trade is not training; it is inference.
O preço da IAMay 2026
Artificial intelligence may be right. The price may not.
IA auditávelJun 2026
The winner will be whoever turns AI into auditable decisions.
Open USDJun 2026
When the tollbooth discovers it can also issue the road.

Methodology

Returns use the adjusted price (splits and dividends) from the letter's trading day to the latest quote, buy-and-hold, with no position sizing.

Quotes refresh automatically once a day. When the quote source fails, the page shows the last frozen value.

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